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mattkhoo7620
Rob Reed
Re: Nich Swisher <FONT COLOR=BLACK><b>[</font>Reply to #<a href="read.pl?3-371">371</a>]</b>
5/21/08, 5:36pm
>How much longer do you think it is worth holding on to Nick
>Swisher... I got him for $21 in a auction keeper league and
>he's really done nothing... I love his potential, but I'm
>thinkin its time to drop him. What you think? Jose Guillen is
>available who's heatin up so is Andrew Jones who burned me
>last year

His HR drop last year is very relevant.  22 HRs, which I think was a 13 or so HR drop from the previous year (and with more ABs last year, if memory serves -- check on that, I could be wrong).

His average will improve from here on out so that he ends up at .250, so that probably means he hits .280-.285 the rest of the way (I think, based on the "regression to the mean, or shall we say progression to the mean" concept).  And, he'll probably hit 20-25 HRs again.

If that is valuable to you, keep him.

I have just been offered him in a big trade (that involves me giving up Fielder) and I just might take it.

[Rob Reed from Sylmar/CA]
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