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Message #4502 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  All
From:  
Newey  
Subject:  What a Difference a Year Makes: Hudson in '07
Date:  4/29/07, 11:46am
graphic
Just finished listening to the latest podcast and enjoyed the debate between Gregg and Rob on the merits of Tim Hudson for the rest of the year.

This article from USA Today describes a few of the changes to his mechanics as well as the improved health of his oblique.

As a Braves fan, I can only hope for more of the same because Hudson has been unbelievable so far this year (3-0, 1.22 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 31 strikeouts in 37 IP). But as a baseball fan I also know that he just can't sustain this level over the full season (mostly due to the fact that he's not Johan Santana).

But I think his peripheral stats project a season more like his years in Oakland than his previous two in Atlanta. His strikeout rate is at 7.54, up nearly 2 K/9 from '05 and '06 and comparable to his 2000 season when he won 20 games for Oakland. And he's also been able to cut his walk rate down nearly half a point compared to last season (2.67 BB/9 down from 3.26). What may be most telling, though, is that Hudson has only surrendered one long ball so far this season (in contrast to the 20 and 25 he gave up in 2005 and 2006).

Granted, 4 of his 5 starts this year have been in pitcher's parks (1 @ Shea, 1 @ Florida, and 2 @ The Ted), but I think you can expect that same proportion for his starts the rest of the season. The new ballpark in Philly is the only stadium in the NL East that promotes run production to any degree.

My prediction for the full year:
15-18 Wins, 3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 170 K's

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Message #4504 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  Newey
From:  
Guest48256 (IP: 76.98.187.178)  
Subject:  Re: What a Difference a Year Makes: Hudson in '07
Date:  4/30/07, 10:05am
What about Orlando? The other Hudson. 20 freakin RBI's in April!

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