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Message #155 of 405  *NEW* To :   All From :   Green Caesar   Subject :   Preparing for the GDR FAB Date :   3/20/06, 2:49pm (Last Edited: 3/20/06, 2:57pm) Well, my GameDayRitual FAB starts tomorrow at 1:00pm EST. The FAB (Free Agent Blitz) is basically an auction drawn out over 6 days. Starting tomorrow at 1:00pm, Team #1 will put a player out there to start the bidding, followed by Team #2 ten minutes later and Team #3 ten minutes after that this process goes on until all 12 GMs have put 5 players up for auction (60 players per day). A player stays on the market for 24 hours after being put up for auction. The creators of GDR claim that you do not have to be at your computer for the entire process but everything I have read says that you will become &bold-very-bold& addicted to the FAB. So if all goes well, I will still be married after this is all said and done. I talked about the VBD approach to draft preparation in one of my earlier entries. I am using a similar approach to the FAB. I scoured the internet to find the best 2006 Projections. I found two and half really good ones that projected the stats that GDR uses. I then averaged out the projections and plugged them into the GDR formula for scoring. This gave me a number to attach to each player. After that, I went through and highlighted the top 12 at each position that GDR requires (36 at OF and 60 at SP). I need to include a DH in my starting lineup, so I highlighted the 12 highest point totals that were not highlighted earlier. This shows me in my opinion what players should be starting. I still needed to figure out what players would be drafted. This was a little tougher. Looking at the un-Highlighted players, there were a number of players that I knew would get drafted, so I included those. After that, I looked for plateaus and added certain groups of players to get to my 300 players that would be drafted again, in my opinion. So now I have 300 players (189 hitters and 111 pitchers), each with a Total Projected GDR Points Total. I rank the 189 hitters from highest GDR Points total to the lowest. I then find the true value of each player by subtracting the GDR Points Total of the 189th hitter from all other hitters (I did the same for the pitchers but subtracted the 111th pitcher from all other pitchers). The 189th hitter now has a value of zero. Now, I need to put a price on this value. Keep in mind that this is all done with a spreadsheet. Now, take the player’s value and divide it by the sum of all player’s values (1st-189th). This will give you a decimal number that you will use to get the monetary value of the player. The only thing left to do is multiply this decimal number by the total amount that you think will be spent on hitters in the FAB for your league. Each GDR team has $100 million to spend in the FAB so that is $1200 million total. Now I have to guess on how much will be spent on pitching. I am going to use the trusty 65/35 ratio this leads to $780 million to be spent on hitters. This leaves $420 million for pitchers. Here is some players and their values that I came up with in my preparation NAME - - GDR Pts - - Value - - Decimal - - $$ Value A Pujols........684........515....... .017........$12.98 J Santana.....762........380....... .030........$12.65 E Gagne.........591........209....... .017..........$6.94 C Figgins.......403........204....... .007..........$5.14 J Estrada.......273........34.5...... .001..........$0.87 Pujols projects to be a beast this year as does Santana. I will now use these figures as a guidleine during the auction. One thing to keep in mind is that the minimum salary in GDR is $0.5 million so any player that projects to a value less than that, I hard-coded a value of $0.5 million. Wish me luck I will do my best to blog frequently during the FAB • Previous Topic • Next Topic • Reply to Msg #155 • Start New Topic • Back to Topics 16356 reads This message has been added to these BGEEKS Blogs: Green Caesar's GeekBlog

Message #167 of 405  *NEW* To :   Green Caesar's GeekBlog Thread From :   Green Caesar   Subject :   Preparing for the GDR FAB Date :   3/21/06, 12:27pm (Last Edited: 3/21/06, 12:29pm) Day One (1:05 pm) FAB officially starts with Jeremy Hermida put out there. His minimum salary is $0.5 million, but I have him projected to a value of $4.53 million. I decide to tender him an offer of $2.5 million for 2 years. After putting in that bid, I am told that my offer was competitive and I am rewarded with the chance to submit one more offer. I am also told that there are 3 teams in on the bidding at this time. I decide to not use my additional offer at this time. (1:21 pm) Vlad Guerrero is put out there I had originally queued up a bid of $7.5 million that appears to be way too low looks like I will miss out on Vlad. I do bump up my bid on Manny from $7 million to $8.5 million as well as bumping up the offers of some others. (1:30 pm) Addicted already Felix Hernandez comes up. I originally queued him up with a bid of $2.5 million for 2 years. I was in the ballpark, so I was allowed one final offer. I have him projected out to a value of $5.8 million, so I bumped my offer up to $5 million for 2 years I am currently have the highest bid in on him. (1:50pm) My turn to offer someone up I put forth Pujols with an original offer of $10 million for 2 years (raised after seeing what happened with Vlad earlier). D’oh! Not even close. Five teams total in the bidding and I am denied another attempt at a better offer (mens I was below 20% of the best offer). I had Pujols projected to a value of $12.98 million. This is going to get ugly prices are going to be high on the first day. (3:05pm) Well, this is interesting and frustrating. Since Pujols went on the market Santana was brought up my bid of $10 million for 2 years was again too low to warrant an additional offer. Weeks and Torii Hunter were next on the auction block I decided to pass on both for now. Rivera was the first closer put out there going to hold off. Felipe Lopez was next and again, I will hold off I think I am scarred from the Pujols/Santana slap-in-the-face. Rich Harden appeared next around 2:50pm I had him projected for a value of $6.03 million, so I bid $5.5 million for 2 years slap again, too low for another additional offer. Grrrr . now Victor Martinez comes up as the first catcher. I like him and Mauer about the same. I put in a bid of $5.5 million for 2 years and again no good. Mother pussbucket, this is ticking me off. • Previous Topic • Next Topic • Reply to Msg #167 • Start New Topic • Back to Topics 17379 reads

Message #168 of 405  *NEW* To :   Green Caesar From :   Reedster   Subject :   Re: Preparing for the GDR FAB Date :   3/21/06, 1:10pm Hmmmm... can you track what each team is spending, and who has spent the most? It might be a very good strategy to let the other owners blow their wads on top tiere guys, while you work on creating a balanced team. My auction league is such that when top tier players go early at high prices, there are always great buys to be had at the end of the draft... say a Grady Sizemore, Matt Holliday, Griffey, Giambi, Chad Tracy, Ryan Howard, etc. for next to nothing. The 12 team number is a sticking issue, though... you must bid up at least one top tier player like Teixiera or an Ortiz type. • Previous Topic • Next Topic • Reply to Msg #168 • Start New Topic • Back to Topics 17379 reads

Message #170 of 405  *NEW* To :   Green Caesar's GeekBlog Thread From :   Green Caesar   Subject :   Re: Preparing for the GDR FAB Date :   3/21/06, 1:55pm (4:48pm) Hey success! I had an offer for Brandon Webb queued up for $5.5 million for 2 years. When he ws brought up, I was close and received an additonal offer to make. I turned around and offered 2 yrs/$7 with a No-Trade clause. As of right now, I am in the lead for his services. Some other players of note: Lost out on Mauer, Teixeira & Figgins. Offered Mauer 2yrs/$4.5, Tex 2yrs/$9.5 and Figgins 2yrs/$5. Can’t wait to see what prices these players finally go for tomorrow. Rob, Have no idea who is spending the money ... will not know the price until 24 hours after the player was introduced. For example, Hermedia was first to go on the block at 1:05pm ... tomorrow at 1:05 pm, we will find out who got him and at what price. I think that I am going to make a strong run at Ortiz when he comes up. • Previous Topic • Next Topic • Reply to Msg #170 • Start New Topic • Back to Topics 17374 reads

Message #173 of 405  *NEW* To :   Green Caesar's GeekBlog Thread From :   Green Caesar   Subject :   Re: Preparing for the GDR FAB Date :   3/22/06, 8:15am Day Two (9:12am) Checked in to find that my queued offer of 3yrs/$10 NoTrade was close for Jason Bay I was rewarded with one additional offer. My 3yr/$10 offer for Manny puts me close rewarding me with two additional offers my offer is still not in the lead, though. My offer of 3yr/$9 for Ichiro was clearly the best he received I am in the lead with two additional offers (if I need them). I have the potential to have an OF of Manny, Ichiro, Bay & Hermida wow. I decide to use my additional offer on Bay. I up my offer to 3yr/$11 NoTrade I don’t think that this will do it but I really do not want to spend any more I’m going for Manny. I was right. I am still close with my offer to Bay but not in the lead. The only way I will get him now is if the team that holds the leading bid rescinds that bid (and even then I do not know if I am in 2nd, there are 10 teams bidding on him). Some other players that wer brought up that intrigue me: Rolen,Carpenter,D-Ortiz,Tejada,F-Rod,Delgado,Cain,Utley,M-Cabrera,Beltran, & Chavez. Need to decide it I want to make an offer on any of them. (10:44am) Put in another offer for Manny: 3yr/$11.5 still not the highest bid for his services. I am only up against one other GM. I’m going to put in a bid for 3yr/$15 I amin the lead with that bid. Going to submit an offer for Utley 2yr/$7.5 was not enough I turn my attention to M-Cabrera I offer 2yr/$8.5 NoTrade close, I get one more offer. I put out there 2yr/$11 NoTrade and I am in the lead!!!! Downside is that I have $150 million out there on offers that is the max I will get some money freed up when players start coming off the market at 1:05pm I have big money tied up in Pujols, Santana,Vlad & F-Hernandez. So now I wait I am the leading bidder for Hermida, Webb, Manny, Ichiro & M-Cabrera. • Previous Topic • Next Topic • Reply to Msg #173 • Start New Topic • Back to Topics 17371 reads

Message #174 of 405  *NEW* To :   Green Caesar From :   Reedster   Subject :   Re: Preparing for the GDR FAB Date :   3/22/06, 10:09am An outfield of Manny, Ichiro, and Hermida is SICK. Good luck! • Previous Topic • Next Topic • Reply to Msg #174 • Start New Topic • Back to Topics 8119 reads

Message #177 of 405  *NEW* To :   Green Caesar's GeekBlog Thread From :   Green Caesar   Subject :   Re: Preparing for the GDR FAB Date :   3/22/06, 11:15am 2:17(pm) Well, the Green Machine welcomes Hermida to the organization. He was the first player introduced in the auction and I signed him for 2yr/$5 not bad. Here are the other signings: Vlad for 3yr/$12 NoTrade F-Hernandez for 2yr/$7 Konerko for 1yr/$6.5 Pujols for 3yr/$15.5 NoTrade Santana for 3yr/$15 NoTrade Weeks for 3yr/$6 $15+ for Pujols & Santana looks like my Manny bid may be just a bit much, but hopefully I get him. Weeks could be a absolute steal for 3yr/$6 • Previous Topic • Next Topic • Reply to Msg #177 • Start New Topic • Back to Topics 17365 reads

Message #179 of 405  *NEW* To :   Green Caesar From :   Reedster   Subject :   Re: Preparing for the GDR FAB Date :   3/22/06, 11:26am That is one helluva team you are building... and you have trade bait with Konerko to fill any gaps... very nice start. • Previous Topic • Next Topic • Reply to Msg #179 • Start New Topic • Back to Topics 17361 reads

Message #180 of 405  *NEW* To :   Green Caesar's GeekBlog Thread From :   Green Caesar   Subject :   Re: Preparing for the GDR FAB Date :   3/22/06, 11:49am No no no ... sorry these are not players I signed ... just overall signings. • Previous Topic • Next Topic • Reply to Msg #180 • Start New Topic • Back to Topics 17360 reads

Message #184 of 405  *NEW* To :   Green Caesar's GeekBlog Thread From :   Green Caesar   Subject :   Re: Preparing for the GDR FAB Date :   3/22/06, 3:35pm (5:45pm) My, how things change. I am no longer in the lead for Manny, Ichiro or M-Cabrera. Someone has either tied my bid or has bid higher. I will find out tomorrow morning when I check in. Earlier in the day, I had the hoghest bid in for Webb at 2yr/$7 a little after I blogged at 2:15, someone put a higher bid in (I know this because the box next to his name on the website turned from green to yellow). I assumed that I had lost him, since I did not have any more chances to submit another offer for him. Low and behold, he signed with the Green Machine. So, either the bids were a tie and I had a higher GM rating (number that starts at 50 and goes up or down based on how your bids are recevied by the players) .. or maybe someone bid 3yr/$7+ and Webb did not want the long-term deal (website says that some younger players will want a short –term deal in order to put up a good year and cash in when the contract expires older players may want the reverse interesting concept). Don’t know for sure what happened. Here are some other signings in the league: Rivera for 2yr/$8 Harden for 3yr/$9 NT Bay 3yr/$10.5 NNT I bid 2yr/$11 M-Young for 2yr/$8.5 I bid 3yr/$8 Peavy for 2yr/$11 NT Mauer for 3yr/$6 freakin steal! Teixeira for 2yr/$15 NT D-Wright for 3yr/$12 NT Lidge for 3yr/$8 Here are where the teams stand: Fightin’ ACLs – 5 players @ $38.5 Laibach Kittens – 6 players @ $36.5 LA Jaguars – 3 players @ $28 Leppleand Lions – 4 players @ $24.5 Asian Invasion – 3 players @ $23 Pastime – 3 players @ $21.5 Jacob’s Crib – 3 players @ $21 Lielbasa Nostra – 2 players @ $14 Green Machine – 2 players @ $12 Kirby’s Creampuffs – 1 player @ $9 CARDINALS – 1 player @ $4 Ginger Kids – 0 players • Previous Topic • Next Topic • Reply to Msg #184 • Start New Topic • Back to Topics 1803 reads

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