It's been said so long and so often that it's tempting to dismiss it as a cliché, but the fact is, there's some truth to the old baseball axiom: You can't win a pennant in the first few months, but you sure can lose it.
True enough. You don't need to bust out of the gate at 35-5 like the 1984 Detroit Tigers, but if you slump badly and drift out of contention early, it puts a very real strain on the season.
Last year's New York Yankees managed to rebound nicely from an 11-19 beginning -- winning the AL East on the second-to-last day of the regular season -- but then, it helps to have the Yanks' depth and resources. Not every team is as fortunate.
That's why it's critical for the following four teams to enjoy strong starts to their seasons. In each case, expectations have increased, meaning good Aprils are a must.
Here's a look at the four teams that can't afford to stay in first gear during the first month:
The Twins won the AL Central three years in a row (2002-2004) before drifting back to the middle of the division last year.
Now, the world champion White Sox have improved with the additions of slugger Jim Thome, super sub Rob Mackowiak and starter Javier Vazquez. The Indians, who self-destructed down the stretch last season, are a year older and seemingly better.
The Twins? Good question. Their rotation appears solid, led by Johan Santana and Brad Radke, and the late innings are in the capable hands of Jesse Crain and Joe Nathan.
But there are questions about the offense, and the left side of the infield -- Tony Batista at third base? -- is, to put it mildly, suspect.
The Twins need to have a fast start to hang with the White Sox and Tribe, but the schedule maker has done them no favors -- starting Tuesday, with their home opener, the Twins play the A's, Yankees, Angels and White Sox for a stretch of a dozen games. By mid-May, they'll have met the Indians and White Sox two series each and gotten an indication of whether they can keep pace in the AL Central.
If the answer is no, expect that trade rumors will begin to swirl around Torii Hunter. The Twins hold a $12 million option on him for next season, but that's a big number for a medium-market team with no new (much-needed) ballpark in the pipeline.
The Blue Jays were among the biggest spenders in the offseason, shelling out $102 million for starter A.J. Burnett and closer B.J. Ryan, while adding the existing salaries (via trade) of third baseman Troy Glaus and first baseman Lyle Overbay.
If the Blue Jays are going to make good on their threat to crack the New York-Boston stranglehold on the AL East, they'll have plenty of opportunities in the first few weeks. A demanding schedule has the Jays meeting their two division rivals 11 times in the first 23 games.
The rest of the early schedule is plenty challenging, too. After the Jays finish their series in Boston this week (Tuesday-Thursday), they will visit Chicago to meet the world champion White Sox in a three-game weekend series. In May, the Jays will have 15 more games with playoff teams from a year ago (Red Sox, Angels and White Sox).
Of course, it doesn't help that Burnett has already missed two starts because of elbow concerns.
But there's something else at stake here, too. With the Maple Leafs out of the NHL playoffs, the Blue Jays have the chance to get Toronto's attention in the spring. For a team that a decade ago drew 4 million fans, a quick start would give them instant legitimacy with the fan base that hasn't had a playoff team since before the last work stoppage.
No franchise, other than perhaps the Expos-Nationals, has suffered more because of the 1994-95 strike. Here's the perfect opportunity, with new stars in tow and young players maturing, to win the fans back.
The only team busier than the Blue Jays in the offseason was the Mets, who spent lavishly to upgrade at closer (Billy Wagner), first base (Carlos Delgado) and catcher (Paul Lo Duca).
General manager Omar Minaya is not building for the long haul -- the Mets have a mandate to win now, never more true as the club is in Year 1 of its own TV network. Keeping in contention will not only drive ticket sales but also likely prop up ratings for SportsNet New York.
In baseball terms, the Mets can't afford to let the Atlanta Braves (15 division titles in a row and counting) run off and hide in the NL East -- particularly since, thanks to parity in the National League, the wild card figures to be a crowded competition with as many as 10 teams capable of earning a spot to play in October.
If the Mets stumble, there will be criticism aimed at Minaya for trading away two starters (Kris Benson and Jae Seo) and for his decision 16 months ago to bring Carlos Beltran to a city for which he seems unsuited (at least so far). If the Mets are sluggish, expect external pressure to rush the likes of outfielder Lastings Milledge and right-hander Philip Humber to the majors. Manager Willie Randolph, though only in his second season, will come under more intense scrutiny.
We'll know a lot about the Mets soon -- by May 7, they'll have gone head-to-head with the Braves nine times, and mid-May will bring a demanding three-city road trip to Philadelphia, Milwaukee and St. Louis, three cities with like-minded playoff aspirations.
The Giants might be the hardest team in baseball to handicap. There's plenty of talent, but so much of it is old, it's hard to know what to expect.
The double-play combination of Omar Vizquel and Ray Durham is a combined 76 years old and the Giants have three outfielders who were born before The Summer of Love -- Steve Finley, Moises Alou and, of course, Barry Bonds.
The first six weeks should reveal something about the productivity of the many veterans and how durable they may figure to be. Health questions remain about their best pitcher, Jason Schmidt, and closer Armando Benitez remains sidelined.
Given the outbreak of injuries incurred already by the Dodgers (Nomar Garciaparra and Eric Gagne), the NL West title should be up for grabs. But thanks to their aging roster, the Giants may have difficulty staying healthy as the long season progresses.
A good start is key, both to keep pace with the rest of the field and to discourage any sort of midseason rebuilding if they begin to drift out of contention.
Naturally, Bonds is the key. If he contributes, the Giants will score runs. If he doesn't, it's unlikely anyone else can come close to carrying the offensive load.
Starting Tuesday night, the Giants will play 15 of their next 21 games within the division. That should give them a clue as to how they stack up with the competition.
Sean McAdam of The Providence (R.I.) Journal covers baseball for ESPN.com.