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Comments on: TOTS Tuesday: Tale of Two Seasons #2
by: Rob Reed | December 30, 2008, 12:08am
     

Happy New Year! The "Tale of Two Seasons" column will occur every Tuesday, where I will look at two straight seasons of a player's stats, and you guess who I am talking about...

In this week's Tale of Two Seasons, I focus on a 2008 stud rather than the goat that was Aaron Rowand in 2008.

In 2007, this TOT had a major crash and burn to his batting average -- a full 6.3% drop (.270, from .333). He had a power drop of 6 HRs and 1 RBI from 2006 to 2007, although he had 82 more ABs in 2007 than he did in 2006.

Probably most disappointing to his owners was his disasterous inability to get on base in 2007. His .317 OBP made many believe that his 2006 .388 OBP was likely a fluke. This was especially true for those considering the fact that this player only got on base just over 33% of the time in his 5-year minor league career.

In the 2008 draft season, this player lost most of the hype he generated in the fantasy draft season of 2007... no small feat when we're talking about a player, with decent power, who plays at a position where statistics are traditionally awful.

So, when he proved himself to be the best at his position in 2008 according to PLAYERtrack, after meriting 23 HRs, 87 RBI, 5 SBs, a .301 AVG, and a .371 OBP, it caused fantasy owners (myself included) to once again take notice.

The explanation for the 2007-2008 statistical differences? Perhaps, this was just another case of a hitter being unlucky. In 2007, his BABIP crashed some .052 points while his contact rate remained mostly unchanged (85% from 87%). In 2006, his contact rate was 87% (.333 AVG). In 2008, his contact rate was also 87% (.301 AVG).

Can he keep it up and hold steady to his remarkable fantasy value?

Well, in his short Major League career thus far, this player has shown that it is reasonable to predict a contact rate in the 85% range. If he maintains a BABIP around .300, it is also reasonable to expect a .300 average.

This, of course, makes him an extremely valuable fantasy player... especially considering his regular position as catcher.

****Click here to go to this player's profile page****.

Do you have an opinion as to why this player had such a breakdown in 2007, and do you think he can keep up his stellar statistics from 2006 and 2008? Sound off in the comments!

Have a suggestion for a new TOT who you feel deserves positive or negative attention? Email me at robertreed[at]gmail[dot]com...

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6/8/11: June Update podcast - Rob looks at pitchers about to break out and hitters about to break up... standard 5x5. PLAYERtrack is now FREE!

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Adam Jones: tommy1 by tommy1 (March 10, 2022, 06:20am)
Mike Trout: tommy1 by tommy1 (March 10, 2022, 06:17am)
Mike Trout: I suppose... by Rob Reed (April 6, 2013, 08:25pm)
Victor Martinez: Good question by Rob Reed (March 22, 2013, 04:42pm)
Victor Martinez: keeper question by bramos (February 28, 2013, 08:36am)
Adam Jones: Tearing it up... by Rob Reed (May 8, 2012, 03:40pm)
Bryce Harper: 19-years old by Rob Reed (May 7, 2012, 10:45am)
Johnny Cueto: k rate went down by Rob Reed (April 3, 2012, 04:18pm)
Alex Gordon: high babip and league avg contact by Rob Reed (March 27, 2012, 11:49am)
Mike Aviles: I like Aviles by Rob Reed (March 26, 2012, 04:03pm)
Mike Aviles: thoughts? by Brian Ramos (March 26, 2012, 01:38pm)
Sean Marshall: definitely by Brian Ramos (March 26, 2012, 01:34pm)
Sean Marshall: closer by Rob Reed (March 25, 2012, 11:51pm)
Matt Cain: surprised by Rob Reed (March 25, 2012, 09:15pm)
Jacoby Ellsbury: hellooooooo power by Rob Reed (March 23, 2012, 06:19pm)
Curtis Granderson: well, he didn't hit .285 by Rob Reed (March 23, 2012, 01:25pm)
Alex Rios: the stolen bases are done by Rob Reed (March 23, 2012, 09:08am)
Eric Hosmer: interesting by Rob Reed (March 23, 2012, 09:04am)
Greg Halman: R.I.P. by Rob Reed (March 22, 2012, 03:29pm)
Jed Lowrie: personally by Rob Reed (February 24, 2012, 02:37pm)
Hanley Ramirez: absolutely agree by Rob Reed (February 24, 2012, 02:34pm)


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