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Comments on: Tale of Two Seasons #3: Does this guy qualify as "sleeper" for next year?
by: Rob Reed | January 6, 2009, 7:24pm
     

I can reveal to you right off the bat that this week's TOT is an outfielder, and this guessing game will still be difficult (unless, of course, you were a regular listener of the baseballgeeks.com podcast last year until the hiatus in late June).

This 28-year old has had some really amazing games, including two seven-RBI games in 2006, each played for different teams within the same season.

In 2007, he only played in 66 games due to a recurring hamstring injury that kept him out for one long, two-month stint. But, in these 66 games, this player was so good that he ended up ranked 5th overall and 2nd among all OFs in the PLAYERtrack rankings, on a prorated basis.

His 2007 stats? How about a .335 AVG, a .404 OBP, 12 HR, 39 RBI, 35 R and 2 SB... all in only 173 ABs? It was a quiet breakout because nobody was talking about him at the start of 2008... nobody except me, that is, among websites and podcasts that I read and listened to.

And, perhaps, for good reason.

For one thing, this player wasn't penciled in on his team's active roster at the start of preseason 2008. A decent spring and a convenient injury to a fellow OF changed this so, while this player still was relegated to the bench often -- usually against right handers (he has proven himself pretty good against the rarer left handers) -- he only had 461 ABs last year.

And, in 2008, his AVG dipped substantially to .260, with an OBP of only .310. But, he did surprise many by going on a late spring power spree, ultimately ending the season with a career high 22 HRs.

The reason for the AVG drop? Perhaps, again, a reflection of supreme luck in 2007 vs. 2008. While this player's BABIP was about league average in 2008 (.303), it was a whopping .374 in 2007.

His contact rate has remained steady in the mid 70's, so with a little bit of luck, he can hit .275+ quite reasonably, I think.

For 2009, it appears that this player is slated for a starting job. I'll be monitoring his spring, but as of now, I feel he is a good sleeper 5th OF if you need power and have AVG pretty much taken care of.

My prediction, with a full season: .270 AVG, .320 OBP, 85 RBI, 25 HR, 75 R, 7 SB. Not bad, eh?

Have any idea who I am talking about?

****Click here to find out****

What do you predict this player will do next year? Am I completely coming out of left field? Have I lost my marbles? Is this fellow on your radar at all?

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6/8/11: June Update podcast - Rob looks at pitchers about to break out and hitters about to break up... standard 5x5. PLAYERtrack is now FREE!

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Adam Jones: tommy1 by tommy1 (March 10, 2022, 06:20am)
Mike Trout: tommy1 by tommy1 (March 10, 2022, 06:17am)
Mike Trout: I suppose... by Rob Reed (April 6, 2013, 08:25pm)
Victor Martinez: Good question by Rob Reed (March 22, 2013, 04:42pm)
Victor Martinez: keeper question by bramos (February 28, 2013, 08:36am)
Adam Jones: Tearing it up... by Rob Reed (May 8, 2012, 03:40pm)
Bryce Harper: 19-years old by Rob Reed (May 7, 2012, 10:45am)
Johnny Cueto: k rate went down by Rob Reed (April 3, 2012, 04:18pm)
Alex Gordon: high babip and league avg contact by Rob Reed (March 27, 2012, 11:49am)
Mike Aviles: I like Aviles by Rob Reed (March 26, 2012, 04:03pm)
Mike Aviles: thoughts? by Brian Ramos (March 26, 2012, 01:38pm)
Sean Marshall: definitely by Brian Ramos (March 26, 2012, 01:34pm)
Sean Marshall: closer by Rob Reed (March 25, 2012, 11:51pm)
Matt Cain: surprised by Rob Reed (March 25, 2012, 09:15pm)
Jacoby Ellsbury: hellooooooo power by Rob Reed (March 23, 2012, 06:19pm)
Curtis Granderson: well, he didn't hit .285 by Rob Reed (March 23, 2012, 01:25pm)
Alex Rios: the stolen bases are done by Rob Reed (March 23, 2012, 09:08am)
Eric Hosmer: interesting by Rob Reed (March 23, 2012, 09:04am)
Greg Halman: R.I.P. by Rob Reed (March 22, 2012, 03:29pm)
Jed Lowrie: personally by Rob Reed (February 24, 2012, 02:37pm)
Hanley Ramirez: absolutely agree by Rob Reed (February 24, 2012, 02:34pm)

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