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dpwoodford  
Subject:  Angels in the Offseason - Rounding things up
Date:  4/10/05, 10:18am
graphic
As we left things, we had looked at the players the Angels signed in the offseason, and those that got away. Wefll round things up by considering how the Angels did this offseason, when we look at who they signed, and who they brought up, to replace those that will be plying their trade elsewhere in 2005.

At Starting Pitcher, Paul Byrd replaced Aaron Sele. Paul adds 2 WARP over Sele (but only one over Ramon Ortiz), and does so at below market value, so from a statistical point of view at least, he offers an upgrade. Score 1 to the Angels.


At Third Base, the Angels brought Dallas McPherson up from the Minor Leagues to replace Troy Glaus. Dallas McPherson is a huge value for the Angels - as a rookie he receives the league minimum $310,000 - but (as expected) fails to compare with Troy in terms of WARP. Troyfs projected WARP for 2005 is 5.6, where as Dallas McPhersonfs is 3.8 (In essence, the Angels will win 1.8 less games with Dallas than Troy). Troy himself is overpaid at the Arizona
Diamondback, in the region of $1m per year. From a baseball perspective, you have to score 1 to the ROL (Rest Of League), but economically itfs 1 to the Angels, so wefll call it a tie. However, could the Angels have signed Troy for lower, and made a positive value move? Quite possiblyc

In Center Field for the Angels, Steve Finley. Steve was a value signing, and one that must be credited to the organization. He offers 7.1 WARP over the two years, with PECOTA projecting 4.9 of those coming in 2005. If we were being ultra critical, a one year deal may have been a better move, but the Angels are still getting tremendous value here. Jose Guillen offers better value statistically (5.3 WARP in 2005 for less money), but in terms of clubhouse atmosphere, he had to leave the Angels, and perhaps that can explain his $7.8m value for the Washington Ex-pos. Time will tell on Jose, but you have to score another to the Angels front office here.

In the bullpen, the Angels have added Bret Prinz in what is a value move, but itfs hard to directly compare him to anyone, as technically he replaced Ortiz who gains his new projections as a starter in Cincatti. At closer, the Angels have Frankie Rodriguez earning a salary barely above the minimum at $440,000. This (as youfd expect) represents enormous value. He is also ahead of Troy Percival in WARP, so itfs impossible to criticize this move. Percival is hugely overpaid in Detroit, the Tigers paying about $4.425m over what his projections would expect.

This brings us to Shortstop. Oh dear Bill Stoneman, oh dear. The Angels have paid Orlando Cabrera $28.6m over 4 years. Over those 4 years, PECOTA projects him to contribute 13.3 WARP (4.4 in 2005), at a cost to the Angels of $2.1m per WARP. This may not seem unreasonable, indeed it is around the Major League Average (representing a total glossh of $147Œ000 over four years). The problem comes when you consider who Cabrera is replacing. David Eckstein is expected to produce 4.3 WARP in 2005, at an expected cost to the St Louis Cardinals of $869,000. Letfs consider that for a moment. In 2005, the Angels are paying $4,196,619 for 1 tenth of a win. Madness.

All in all, itfs been quite a positive offseason, but Ifd have to agree with the many writers who have labelled the Cabrera move a mistake. When it came down to it, the Angels could probably have signed David Eckstein for *less* than the St Louis Cardinals, but instead decided to pay Orlando Cabrera much more to do about the same. No, the Angels havenft got worse on the field, but economically, the decision is open to question. The full figures on the Angels are below this article.

To wrap things up, wefll consider a couple of non-angels. Cristian Guzmanfs 4 year, $14.46m/year deal with the Washington Nationals is the steal of the offseason (include Guillenfs in here, and you can see how well the Nationals have done), coming in $17m under projected value. J.D. Drewfs 5 year contract with the cross-town Dodgers comes in second ($13.7m under projected value), with Eckstein 3rd ($12.9m).

When we consider who got robbed this offseason, prime candidate is the Detroit Tigers. We already considered Troy Percivals deal at $4m over value, but they also have the worst signing of the offseason with a 5 year, $66m deal coming in at $31m over projection. The Mariners signing of Richie Sexson comes in second worst ($18.15m over budget), with Russ Ortiz of Arizona ($12.39m) and Carl Pavano of Florida ($11.37m) rounding off those who were overpaid by over $10m.

Player Salary Years WARP $ / win Value
Paul Byrd $5,000,000 1 3.1 $1,510,968 $1,950,000

Steve Finley $13,050,000 2 7.1 $1,838,028 $2,144,000

Orlando Cabrera $28,609,000 4 13.3 $2,151,053 -$147,000

Bret Prinz $342,322 1 0.8 $427,903 $1,369,678

D.McPherson $310,000 1 3.8 $81,579 $7,821,923

F. Rodriguez $440,000 1 3.5 $125,714 $7,049,997

Troy Glaus $40,710,000 4 17.1 $2,381,000 -$4,121,100

Troy Percival $11,097,000 2 3.2 $3,523,000 -$4,425,600

David Eckstein $8,866,000 3 10.2 $869,000 $12,964,200

Ramon Ortiz $3,550,000 1 2.1 $1,690,476 $944,000

Aaron Sele $700,000 1 1.1 $636,364 $1,654,000

Jose Guillen $3,500,000 1 5.3 $660,377 $7,842,001

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