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BaseballGeeks.com Home : BaseballGeeks : Headlines : Reading "A good introduction on the concept of the 'contact rate' (this is the article that Rob references in the podcast on 3B, soon to come) " Thread

Message #4910 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  All
From:  
Rob Reed  
Subject:  A good introduction on the concept of the 'contact rate' (this is the article that Rob references in the podcast on 3B, soon to come)
Date:  3/14/08, 08:04am
graphic
Generally, I have to admit that this is a factor that I am still not 100% sold on, but it is an interesting factor.

It basically determines the rate at which a player puts the ball in play (i.e., doesn't strike out).

So, do you choose not to draft a Ryan Howard because he struck out a Major League record 199 times last year?

Or, how about B.J. Upton with his amazing season, when his contact rate is in the 60 percentile?

Still, as a fantasy player, we have to be flexible, and we have to use as much information as possible to generate our opinions. And, so, I'm going to add this concept in my analysis for 3B (and probably for OF and C) and see where it takes me by season's end.

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Message #4913 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  Rob Reed
From:  
Rob Reed  
Subject:  Re: A good introduction on the concept of the 'contact rate' (this is the article that Rob references in the podcast on 3B, soon to come)
Date:  3/14/08, 5:04pm
graphic
I am so curious about this factor of fantasy analysis that I have now added contact rate as a searchable function on PlayerTrack.

In fact, I'm thinking that the best way to get a thorough look at fantasy players for your league is to select all of your offensive categories AND INCLUDE the contact rate factor, which might help indicate whether a player's batting average will hold or get better.

Just a thought.

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Message #4927 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  Rob Reed
From:  
vegasman2000  
Subject:  Re: A good introduction on the concept of the 'contact rate' (this is the article that Rob references in the podcast on 3B, soon to come)
Date:  3/18/08, 6:54pm
The main reason that contact rate is important is that it it tied to the DIPS theory:
http://www.fantasybaseballgenerals.com/2007/05/unde
rstanding-batting-average.html

Essentially, if the percentage of hits per batted ball is roughly constant for a given player, per DIPS, then the more batted balls in play the more hits. It is more of a mathematical anomaly than anything else, sort of akin to why batters allegedly hit worse with two strikes when in reality it is just a misunderstanding of the formula for batting average.

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