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Message #4320 of 6634  *NEW*
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Anonymous  
Subject:  BGeeks Volume 2, #2: The Return of the Gregg-I... we look at the outfield position and explain how you can qualify for this year's 'Beat the Geeks' league
Date:  3/17/07, 01:24am
Gregg is back! We discuss how to qualify for this year's "Beat the Geeks" fantasy league and we take a long look at the top 20 PlayerTrack.com standard 5x5 OFs, with 20 minimum games, and 450 minimum ABs (with walks added).

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Message #4321 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  Anonymous
From:  
Jaydawg  
Subject:  Re: BGeeks Volume 2, #2: The Return of the Gregg-I... we look at the outfield position and explain how you can qualify for this year's 'Beat the Geeks' league
Date:  3/17/07, 9:58am
Welcome back to the BaseballGeeks.com Podcast!!!!!!!! Great show as always. I hate to admit it, but I also see Barry "BALCO Ba-Bo" Bonds breaking Aaron's record later in the season, even with all of his controversies with steroids and lawsuits. Could Jermaine Dye become this year's Reggie Sanders for PlayerTrack.com? That remains to be seen. I suspect Dye will go back to his D.L. ways in '07, so I wouldn't consider him a safe bet. Otherwise, those were excellent choices for the top outfielders.

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Message #4322 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  Anonymous
From:  
Guest40013 (IP: 67.85.156.152)  
Subject:  Re: BGeeks Volume 2, #2: The Return of the Gregg-I... we look at the outfield position and explain how you can qualify for this year's 'Beat the Geeks' league
Date:  3/17/07, 8:56am
Guys - I love the Player Track idea, i do in season ranking myself, but your math is so flawed it pains me. The idea that carl crawford was only the 19th best OF last year is ridiculous.

Do you post anywhere how your math works? Are you comparing to the average stats at the position? A player can be so good in one category to make up for defeciencies in others.

I can't use player track the way it is set up today - it just isn't right.

Lou

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Message #4324 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  Guest40013 (IP: 67.85.156.152)
From:  
Reedster  
Subject:  Re: BGeeks Volume 2, #2: The Return of the Gregg-I... we look at the outfield position and explain how you can qualify for this year's 'Beat the Geeks' league
Date:  3/17/07, 10:37am
Hi Lou:

Thanks for your post.

The math is very simple. PlayerTrack ranks every player who took an AB in the majors last year in each category, and prorates the players with lesser ABs as if they played a full season.

Like in roto scoring, the player gets the number of points in that category where he places.

The fact is very simple: Carl Crawford is OVERRRATED because of the team he plays on. Give me a name of someone who is ahead of him in PlayerTrack from last year, and I will tell you why that person is ahead.

This podcast ranking did not include the players who had fewer than 450 ABs+walks, so there aren't any of those players affecting the "mix," which can happen (do a free search of 1B, and you'll see what I mean -- James Loney and Olmedo Saenz appear in the top 10).

The stats speak for themselves.

Let's take Torii Hunter, who ranked higher than Carl. Here are his rankings:

Rankings: BA(36/70) RBI(16/70) R(33/70) HR(15/70) SB(24/70)

And, now Carl:

Rankings: BA(10/70) RBI(44/70) R(41/70) HR(42/70) SB(2/70)

Carl was better than Torii in BA and SBs ONLY. That is two out of three categories. Tell me one "expert" who predicted Torii would have a better season. Not even Gregg or myself did. But, the facts speak for themselves. Torii was a better fantasy player in 2006 than Carl Crawford.

Whether this will be the case this year is up for debate. In a ten team league, PlayerTrack rates Carl as a "2nd outfielder," which -- to me -- is entirely reasonable based on the team he plays on.

Time will tell if my PlayerTrack system will continue to make me money. All I can tell you is that before I used it, I never made the money. In the two years that I have used it, I took first place and then third place last year (last year I lost both Gary Sheffield and Derrek Lee for most of the season in APRIL).

AND, most importantly, I spent the second least in my league BOTH seasons -- meaning, my draft won me money... that is, PLAYERTRACK won me money because I used it during the draft to find the best available players at position by categories that I knew I needed help in.

Thanks again for your comments!

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Message #4329 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  Reedster
From:  
drrubb  
Subject:  Re: BGeeks Volume 2, #2: The Return of the Gregg-I... we look at the outfield position and explain how you can qualify for this year's 'Beat the Geeks' league
Date:  3/17/07, 1:41pm
Rob, while I agree with you about Carl Crawford last year & about how some experts could see him as a "second outfielder", basically because of the team he plays on, I respectfully disagree that he is overated. I predict he will be one of the top 5 or 10 outfielders on any ranking system this upcoming season. Based on his talent, Lindy's Fantasy Baseball for 2007 has Crawford ranked as the number 1 5x5 fantasy outfielder. Agreeably his stats were a little down last season, but he is the most under appreciated star in baseball in my opinion, only because of the team he plays for. I believe he'll dominate atleast in one category & be very solid in 4 others.

BTW, playertrack is very interesting. I like it. However, I won't base my entire fantasy baseball drafting stratagy around it. I like to go with my own intuition & gut feeling sometimes. Plus, I just like to be different. Playertrack is a great tool nevertheless!

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Message #4335 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  drrubb
From:  
Reedster  
Subject:  Re: BGeeks Volume 2, #2: The Return of the Gregg-I... we look at the outfield position and explain how you can qualify for this year's 'Beat the Geeks' league
Date:  3/17/07, 9:27pm
Heya Doc:

Crawford has been touted as the next huge thing in fantasy baseball for at least the last three years, and it just hasn't happened. As far as I am concerned, right now, he is a ONE category guy. A very good one category guy who can win you steals.

BUT, until he gets better stats in the other categories, while I would really LIKE to have him on my team, I think it is silly to pick him high in a serpentine draft (unless guys with high steals are going fast) and I just can't pay more than $20 for him.

His owner in my money league has decided to keep him for OVER $30...

I think this is a mistake.

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Message #4336 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  Reedster
From:  
drrubb  
Subject:  Re: BGeeks Volume 2, #2: The Return of the Gregg-I... we look at the outfield position and explain how you can qualify for this year's 'Beat the Geeks' league
Date:  3/17/07, 11:24pm
Yeah, I wouldn't pay $30 for him either. I would sure as hell still like to have him though.

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Message #4342 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  Reedster
From:  
Reedster  
Subject:  Re: BGeeks Volume 2, #2: The Return of the Gregg-I... we look at the outfield position and explain how you can qualify for this year's 'Beat the Geeks' league
Date:  3/18/07, 10:36pm (Last Edited: 3/18/07, 10:37pm)
>The fact is very simple: Carl Crawford is OVERRRATED because
>of the team he plays on. Give me a name of someone who is
>ahead of him in PlayerTrack from last year, and I will tell
>you why that person is ahead.

Really, I am prepared to eat my words with comments like this, especially after having viewed rotoworld's OF preview on NBC digital where they have Carl Crawford as their #1 OF.

What stats from last year are they looking at?

Remember: PlayerTrack is not a prediction of what is to come... it is what was. Carl Crawford WAS the 19th best OF in all of fantasy last year. Period. How you can rank him about any of the top 10 mentioned in the podcast, I have no idea.

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Message #4349 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  Reedster
From:  
BaseballLab  
Subject:  Re: BGeeks Volume 2, #2: The Return of the Gregg-I... we look at the outfield position and explain how you can qualify for this year's 'Beat the Geeks' league
Date:  3/21/07, 8:52am
Thanks for taking the time to respond. Where I respectfully disagree with you is using overall rankings. Take runs for instance here is a breadown of a cross section from last year:

80 Runs - 3 Players
81 Runs - 0 Players
82 Runs - 7 Players
83 Runs - 5 Players
84 Runs - 5 Players

So, somebody that scores 80 runs (Pat Burrell) is ranked 12 places behind somebody that scored 84 runs? That spread is way too high for just a span of 4 runs don't you think?

HR are even worse. 18 people hit either 15 or 16 HR, and if you do a straight rank that means a perso who hit 14 HR is ranked 18 places lower than somebody hot it 17 HR. Again, 3 HR is not that big of a difference but 18 ranking slots is.

I was too harsh in my first post, everyodoy has their own way of doing things, but I think this particular method is hurting your overall rankings a great deal.

Also - I don't think it does justice to rare categories like SB. For every SB there are about 2 HR hit in the game, and you are assigning a similar value to each category this way. Rare categories should get more weight put on them in my opinion.

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Message #4350 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  Reedster
From:  
BaseballLab  
Subject:  Re: BGeeks Volume 2, #2: The Return of the Gregg-I... we look at the outfield position and explain how you can qualify for this year's 'Beat the Geeks' league
Date:  3/21/07, 8:55am
">Remember: PlayerTrack is not a prediction of what is to
>come... it is what was. Carl Crawford WAS the 19th best OF in
>all of fantasy last year. Period. How you can rank him about
>any of the top 10 mentioned in the podcast, I have no idea."

I have him 7th using last year stats:

Soriano, Alfonso LF CHC
Beltran, Carlos CF NYM
Dye, Jermaine RF CHW
Holliday, Matt LF COL
Lee, Carlos N. LF HOU
Guerrero, Vladimir RF ANA
Crawford, Carl LF TB

Again, this is because 58 SB is like hitting 116 HR in the world of fantasy baseball.

I just checked ESPN, there end of season ranking had him 7th as well.

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Message #4356 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  BaseballLab
From:  
Reedster  
Subject:  Re: BGeeks Volume 2, #2: The Return of the Gregg-I... we look at the outfield position and explain how you can qualify for this year's 'Beat the Geeks' league
Date:  3/22/07, 7:36am (Last Edited: 3/22/07, 7:39am)
Hi Lou: Nah, you weren't too harsh... that's what is fun about this stuff, the differences of opinion.

You make an excellent point. But, again, if a player will not HURT you in any categories, I have noticed that his ranking in PlayerTrack doesn't get smacked down that much in this kind of scenario.

The reality is that in a 10 team league, the top 20 are your 1 and 2 OFs, who are amazing fantasy players. As Crawford, comes in 19, what this clues me into is that, yes, he is a fantasy impact player. BUT, last year, he was simply a guy you would want in your #2 OF spot... not your #1 spot... meaning: there is little upside in trying to draft him as a #1, or to pay a messload of money on him in auction as if he is a #1.

That is where PlayerTrack has proved incredibly valuable to me. Someone in our league has kept Crawford as one of four keepers for $30+. This is a big gamble if this player thinks that he can treat Crawford as a #1. Based on what I have seen in fantasy mags this year, I can see why he made the decision... but, the stats show that it just doesn't make safe sense.

Also, because of the higher rankings of, for instance, Cuddyer, Hunter, and Alex Rios, I can identify guys who have proven they are top tier OFs, but who may likely not get that kind of credit at the draft.

I absolutely foresee (of course, only if I wasn't making this comment because our league members read this) a Cuddyer or Hunter being severly undervalued. In Hunter's case, this is relatively wise because of his injury risk... but I am slightly confident that in my league, I might be able to sneak Cuddyer in as an end of the draft flyer (unfortunately, he has had a very solid spring, and a few of our leaguemates pay attention to that).

Thanks for your comments, again (and nice web site, by the way... feel free to add links here to your blog entries).

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