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Message #11 of 17  *NEW*
To:  Everyone
Brew Crew Fan  
Subject:  Brewers info, part 2- Pitching
Date:  4/28/06, 3:42am
Well, I didnt get my pitchers up Wednesday like i said i would, but I'm sure nobody was really waiting on it so i dont feel bad.

Coming into the season, i seem to have been the only person who had NO interest in Doug Davis and Chris Capuano.

Double D (Doug Davis) in his last two "breakout" seasons with Milwaukee has still had a WHIP of ~1.40 To me, that means alot. I NEVER take any SP with a whip in that area. I usually wont even take a SP with a Whip over 1.32 unless i have some other reason for it. Davis could win 15 BUT he wont do it with pretty numbers. His 5 Starts have all been HORRID. He hasnt had a single good looking game yet this season. I am surprised with that, as i expect his starts to be about 50/50 good/bad. I dont think he is near as bad as he has looked so far, but he isnt as good as most people think. I would be borderline on picking him up if he were a FA.

Cappy (Chris Capuano) is someone else people were high on after last season due to his 18 wins last year. He is a chief reason NOT to draft someone based on one statistic you saw in a fantasy baseball magazine. Last year, Davis had better stats than Cappy, but alot less wins. That is just the day the ball flies somedays. Heck, Ben sheets is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and has only averaged about 11 wins per season in his career. His ERA last year was 3.33 compared to Capuanos 3.99 and won EIGHT less games. That being said, this year Capuano has looked very impressive. His ERA is 3.00, and he has averaged over one K per inning. His ERA will go up, his K/inning will go down. There is no reason to think that he will win less than 15-18 games again (since he has already won 3)

The last two starters i will talk about are the last two starters for the Brewers, Tomo Ohka and Dave Bush. As a Brewer fan i am pretty happy to have them as fourth and fifth starters. Actually I am pretty happy with the entire staff. Compared to what i have had to live with as a starting staff in my life, they guys are all good pitchers, for their respective spots in the order. Both will have similar numbers so i will combine them both here. Both of them should end the season with ERA's of around 4.0 to 4.2 on the season. Whips will be a bit higher than i would like, but both could win 12-15 games on the season. You should only expect about 6K's per nine innings for each of them on the season, maybe one or so less for Ohka.

All five of the SP's could be good starters if you start them against the right teams, although the only two starters that are "start them against everyone" type pitchers are Sheets and Capuano. If Capuano drops a couple bad outings though, be prepared to spot start them. It may sound odd for someone to say all five SP's on a team are capable of winning 15 games, but if you check out their histories, you will see they have pretty decend numbers. Also, if the Brewers expect to win 90 gmaes, they will need a minimum of 12-15 wins. Do i think they will all win 15? NO WAY. I am just saying they are all capable of it, and its hard to tell which ones have the most promise over the others.

There are only two relievers that i am going to mention and only one who should be owned.

DERRICK TURNBOW has been a big time surprise since coming to Milwaukee. While everyone was surprised, you will see he has had success in limited action before coming to Milwaukee. In 2003 with the Angels, Turnbow was 2-0 with a 00.59 era in 15.1 innings (striking out 15) in relief. If you have seen him pitch, its fun to watch, but he sure isnt someone you can relax when he comes in. He likes to make it interesting sometimes.

MATT WISE isnt worth owning unless its a deep league, but he has looked better than TURNBOW most of the season. His numbers though are askewed because of a game in which he came in and got SHELLED. It was like a train wreck watching him in that outing. He couldnt get ANYONE out (an error could have put an end to it right off though), he gave up 5 runs, 4 earned when he came in with a 3 run lead. From what i have seen though, he is the guy who will come into the game in the late innings of a tie game, which could lead to seven or 8 wins on the season. I would say he is just as much worth owning as any of the other setup men in baseball who wont close such as Rodney is now, Farnsworth, Worrell, McCarthy, Labrink, etc. He has really good stuff, just not a strikeout guy which is why he isnt owned like those other players are.

Alright. That is enough for now. I have some other fantasy thoughts on my mind, but I am not in the mood for getting in to that right now. I wanted to get this up since I said i would get it up Wednesday, but I will try to get my other thoughts up Saturday, as well as updates on the Brew Crew.

If anyone wants thoughts on a trade of any kind, feel free to drop me a line on that too. Like i said before, i have done very well in my fantasy "career".

~Brew Crew Fan - tony

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Message #13 of 17  *NEW*
To:  Brew Crew Fan
Guest14395 (IP:  
Subject:  Re: Brewers info, part 2- Pitching
Date:  5/1/06, 1:48pm
Wow, Capuano pitched a gem yesterday. Complete game five hitter with six K's. This could be a big year for him after all. He is now 4-2 on the season with a 2.36 ERA. More importantly his whip is under 1.00.

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