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Message #297 of 405  *NEW* To :   All From :   Rob Reed   Subject :   Question: Why is Jose Reyes going so high in drafts? Date :   3/18/08, 2:39pm Some food for thought. Let's look at the 2007 statistical differences between Jose Reyes and Juan Pierre. 12 HR (Pierre has none), 16 RBI, 23 R, 14 SB. Pierre wins the batting average by .013 in only 13 fewer ABs. Are 12 HRs, 16 RBI, 23 R, 14 SB, and a lower batting average so much more incredibly enticing that Reyes deserves first round consideration and Pierre does not? Okay. Some of you (most of you, perhaps... ALL of you, maybe) are calling me crazy, and I'll take that moniker. Oh, and please don't think that I am suggesting that one should draft Juan Pierre in the first round. Not even close. But this is exactly why I wonder why Jose Reyes merits such consideration? Juan Pierre's average draft position is around 106 according to fantasybaseballgenerals.com. Reyes? 4.30, per mockdraftcentral.com. Rotoworld's fantasy magazine ranks Jose Reyes as the #2 fantasy player in all of baseball. And, worse, I have seen Jose get drafted in serpentines as if this were the case. So, my ultimate question: is winning the SB category so important that you have to sacrifice a 3-5 category stud like a Matt Holliday, a Chase Utley, a Ryan Howard, a Prince Fielder, a Miguel Cabrera, etc. by grabbing Jose Reyes in the first round instead? My ultimate answer: I think you are crazy to do that. If Hanley Ramirez or Jimmy Rollins are still on the board and you take Jose Reyes, I think you are nuts. Just think about it. A 2007 Alex Rios would have made up the deficit in HRs very easily for you if you carried Juan Pierre instead of Reyes. It would have bumped up your BA. Rios, in fact, would have helped lessen the SB discrepancy, as well. Rest assured, I am a big Jose Reyes fan (I am spending $28 in a keeper league to keep him on my roster). And, I think my analysis here gets more flimsy if we focus more on Reyes' 2006 season. I concede that if Reyes can reach 20+ HRs and 85+ RBI that there is no discussion. But, last year, Reyes didn't do this. Sure, I'm all for spending the money for him in an auction league. However, for purposes of 2008, I would much rather let someone else take Reyes in the first round while I take a 3-5 category masher, increasing my chances of leading in 3-5 categories rather than just one. Thoughts? • Previous Topic • Next Topic • Reply to Msg #297 • Start New Topic • Back to Topics 14018 reads

Message #298 of 405  *NEW* To :   Rob Reed From :   vegasman2000   Subject :   Re: Question: Why is Jose Reyes going so high in drafts? Date :   3/18/08, 6:55pm Todd Farino on the Sunday radio show had a similar rant about Chone Figgins compared to Reyes. I think there is some merit to what you say here. • Previous Topic • Next Topic • Reply to Msg #298 • Start New Topic • Back to Topics 8669 reads

Message #299 of 405  *NEW* To :   Rob Reed From :   TennesseeJesse   Subject :   Re: Question: Why is Jose Reyes going so high in drafts? Date :   3/18/08, 7:16pm I understand where you are going here (reminiscent of the anti-Carl Crawford talk last year.) But the thing is, you can't compare a difference of a few homers to a difference a few steals. There are a lot of ways to get 240 homers out of an offense of a 14-man offense. Missed out on Carlos Guillen? It's OK. Chris Duncan will give you some of those homers back a few rounds later. No A-Rod? Carlos Lee + Jeff Kent will more than take you there. But big Jose? Of the 70 steals? That is half of what you need to win the category and maybe 20 more than the next guy. That means you draft Reyes, head to the fridge, grab you a Pepsi, and spend your next five offensive picks grabbing Magglio, Manny Ramirez, Andruw Jones, and Jim Thome and still end up the odds-on to win steals in your league with some scraps in the late rounds. And then there is the fact Jose is only 25 this year, and has a good chance of getting back that 2006 power (OK, maybe 5 more HR and 15 more RBI, but still). Juan Pierre doesn't really deserve to start on his own team anymore with Andruw in town (maybe Joe Torre will realize this). I can hear ya barkin, Rob, but let Jose slip to me past pick three in a fantasy draft, and he'll be playin this year for Tennessee's finest. • Previous Topic • Next Topic • Reply to Msg #299 • Start New Topic • Back to Topics 15916 reads

Message #300 of 405  *NEW* To :   Rob Reed From :   Moonlight Graham   Subject :   Re: Question: Why is Jose Reyes going so high in drafts? Date :   3/19/08, 4:55am You make a very valid point about Reyes being overrated. You veer off into insanity when you mention Pierre. I have Pierre rated at the very bottom of my Outfield list simply because I think it is suicide to target any draft picks as compensation for another's shortcomings. A more valid point would be to compare Reyes to Brian Roberts whose stats are very similar and goes anywhere from three to five rounds after Jose. Getting back to Pierre. Aren't I puttting myself in a bad position if, by taking Pierre, I force myself into Jeff Kent instead of Rickie Weeks because I need to make up HR? You ask if the difference of 12 HR is worth the disparity in draft rounds. I'll ask you if you've ever been in a league that was decided by significantly less than 12 HR. I lost a league one year by the two K a pitcher got on the last day. Roberts over Reyes? I can see that. Pierre? I want you in my league. • Previous Topic • Next Topic • Reply to Msg #300 • Start New Topic • Back to Topics 15912 reads

Message #301 of 405  *NEW* To :   Moonlight Graham From :   Rob Reed   Subject :   Re: Question: Why is Jose Reyes going so high in drafts? Date :   3/19/08, 7:25am (Last Edited: 3/19/08, 7:30am) >rounds. I'll ask you if you've ever been in a league that was >decided by significantly less than 12 HR. I lost a league one >year by the two K a pitcher got on the last day. Roberts over >Reyes? I can see that. Pierre? I want you in my league. You ALMOST got my point. My point in this post is NOT to choose Pierre over Reyes. Remember that in my auction draft, he is my third or fourth most expensive player... and I got him cheaper at $28 because I drafted him for VERY cheap during the season when he started the season with that awful hamstring problem, and I have kept him each of the last five years. Obviously, I deem him very valuable. HOWEVER... My point is that I believe that it is fantasy suicide in a SERPENTINE draft to choose Reyes in the first round rather than a big name who has been proven in 3-5 categories and not just one. As people are not following this advice (Reyes is going in the first round in EVERY draft), if you did not choose Reyes in the first round (good decision, in my view), you'll need to find other options... and I showed that Pierre is an example of a singular category player who will soften the blow of not having the league leader in stolen bases. So would Michael Bourn, I think... maybe even Ryan Theriot., assuming he can stay in the starting lineup. I mean think about it. If Richie Sexson were a perennial 40 HR guy with his other stats, is he a first round player? A #2-#5 pick? Using a real life analogy, why isn't Adam Dunn a first round pick (no, don't miss the point here -- I do not think Dunn is a first round pick)? Only FIVE players last year had 40 or more HRs. Why the super love for stolen bases? There were FORTY-TWO players last year with 20+ SBs. NINETEEN with 30+. • Previous Topic • Next Topic • Reply to Msg #301 • Start New Topic • Back to Topics 15905 reads

Message #303 of 405  *NEW* To :   All From :   Jaydawg   Subject :   Re: Question: Why is Jose Reyes going so high in drafts? Date :   3/24/08, 9:17pm I'd also put Troy Tulowitski ahead of Jose Reyes. Tulowitski doesn't come close to Reyes in terms of speed, but I like his power hitting and he was a bit ahead in total bases. I'm actually debating whether or not I should put Derek Jeter ahead of Reyes. Jeter led Reyes in '07 total bases by 289-287 and is capable of more power than what he put up last year. It's hard to ignore Reyes's 72 SB's in '07 though. I wonder what playertrack.com has to say about this.... • Previous Topic • Next Topic • Reply to Msg #303 • Start New Topic • Back to Topics 15122 reads

Message #304 of 405  *NEW* To :   Jaydawg From :   Rob Reed   Subject :   Re: Question: Why is Jose Reyes going so high in drafts? Date :   3/25/08, 5:41pm > I'd also put Troy Tulowitski ahead of Jose Reyes. >Tulowitski doesn't come close to Reyes in terms of speed, but >I like his power hitting and he was a bit ahead in total >bases. I'm actually debating whether or not I should put >Derek Jeter ahead of Reyes. Jeter led Reyes in '07 total >bases by 289-287 and is capable of more power than what he put >up last year. It's hard to ignore Reyes's 72 SB's in '07 >though. I wonder what playertrack.com has to say about >this.... Well, I am certain that there will be a number of folks who read this and think you are nuts. It should probably be noted that the league that I play with you is baseballmanager.com (BBM), which depends largely on great pitching and great power hitting, so Reyes is less valuable in that league. In standard 5x5, I submit that Reyes is still a monster who will guarantee you a top 3 finish in the SB category single-handedly. So, in standard 5x5, I would much rather have Reyes over Troy. In BBM, however, I agree with you completely. • Previous Topic • Next Topic • Reply to Msg #304 • Start New Topic • Back to Topics 15900 reads

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