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Message #2181 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  All
From:  
Jaydawg  
Subject:  Who Will Win The A.L. East?
Date:  2/20/06, 6:00pm
On paper, no one is better than the Yankees. 'Ol Georgie's teams are always the best money can buy, though he does overpay sometimes. Johnny Damon is a good player, but he's definitely not worth $52 million. If George wants him, he gets him, no matter the cost. The Blue Jays are one of the most improved teams in both pitching and offense. The additions of A.J. Burnett, B.J. Ryan, Troy Glaus, and Lyle Overbay should help Toronto win the Wild Card. Who knows? They might even win the division if the Yankees are plagued with injuries. The Red Sox will still be competitive as long as Manny Ramirez stays healthy. If they trade him, hopefully they'll get someone of equal value. But, they lost Damon and their entire infield. The signings of Coco Crisp, Alex Gonzalez, and Josh Beckett does atone for some of that, though. But, Curt Schilling's future is unpredictable at this point. If Schilling miraculously comes back to his old form, then Boston will be a contender for the Wild Card.

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Message #2182 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  Jaydawg
From:  
JCacho  
Subject:  Re: Who Will Win The A.L. East?
Date:  2/20/06, 7:30pm
I fail to see how people are already handing the Blue Jays the Wild Card. They have yet to play one game. AJ Burnett is as much a risk as Josh Beckett, if not more. Glaus hits for power, something the Jays need, but his average is anything but good. They don't have a Shortstop. The only good [guaranteed] acquisition they made was BJ Ryan.

The Sox on the other hand, replaced surplus offense for some much needed defense and pitching. While it seems we created holes in the lineup with Lowell and Gonzalez, we just replaced the old holes, Millar and Bellhorn, while at the same time upgrading our defense immensely. We acquired Mark Loretta, a .300 hitter, in the cheapest deal of the offseason. Trying out Youk at first, same way Jays are trying out Hill and 2nd. Replaced Damon with Crisp, two players of similiar statistics, while saving a ton of cash.

Our pitching was so bad last year, it can only get better. Schilling is looking to come back from his injury [he had a couple of bright spots last year, 1Run games], we traded for Beckett [Yankee Killer], and brought up Jon Papelbon. As for relief corps, we traded for David Riske, signed Julian Tavarez, signed Rudy Seanez, re-signed Timlin, and Foulke appears to be in the best shape of his life.

In 100 simulations of Diamond Mind Baseball, according to ZiPs projections, The Sox got an average of 92 wins per season, the Yankees 87 and Jays 83.

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Message #2186 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  JCacho
From:  
drrubb  
Subject:  Re: Who Will Win The A.L. East?
Date:  2/21/06, 8:33am
None of it matters! Unfortunately, the Yankees will atleast win the division again & will probably go all the way. YUCK!!!!! It's a lot easier to be the champs when you have all that money, politics, & power. George has a bottomless checkbook. The Yankees in my eyes should NEVER get any credit for winning the World Series because they are suppost to almost every year. They have a gigantic advantage over everybody else! Infact, if the Yankees don't win or atleast get to the World Series on a year in & year out basis, they are all overblown failures. They practically & I mean politically, & financially own baseball, which is what is clearly wrong with the game of major league baseball. It is nothing but a monopoly for Stienbrenner, the main stream media, & the damn Yankees.

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Message #2189 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  Jaydawg
From:  
Guest7088 (IP: 69.141.76.197)  
Subject:  Re: Who Will Win The A.L. East?
Date:  2/21/06, 6:53am
Which team will be last in this division? If your an Orioles fan this year, you're probably in for a long year.

1) Yankees
2) Red Sox
3) Blue Jays
4) Tampa Bay
5) Orioles

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Message #2192 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  JCacho
From:  
Reedster  
Subject:  Re: Who Will Win The A.L. East?
Date:  2/21/06, 11:35am
>I fail to see how people are already handing the Blue Jays the
>Wild Card. They have yet to play one game. AJ Burnett is as
>much a risk as Josh Beckett, if not more. Glaus hits for
>power, something the Jays need, but his average is anything
>but good. They don't have a Shortstop. The only good
>[guaranteed] acquisition they made was BJ Ryan.

You make some good points here. The bottom line is that the Sox really do not have a SUPER pitcher on their squad. Good, yes. But Halladay would have likely been the best in the Majors if he did not get sidelined for half the season by a fluke Kevin Mench line drive.

Following this kind of stellar pitching, I think it will make A.J. Burnett and Gustavo Chacin better. I expect a career year from Burnett this year.

>The Sox on the other hand, replaced surplus offense for some
>much needed defense and pitching. While it seems we created
>holes in the lineup with Lowell and Gonzalez, we just replaced
>the old holes, Millar and Bellhorn, while at the same time
>upgrading our defense immensely. We acquired Mark Loretta, a
>.300 hitter, in the cheapest deal of the offseason. Trying out
>Youk at first, same way Jays are trying out Hill and 2nd.
>Replaced Damon with Crisp, two players of similiar statistics,
>while saving a ton of cash.

Loretta was a great pickup. I am not convinced by Crisp. I would also be concerned about Manny Ramirez. I suspect that he will be unhappy and continue with his trade demands. The Spring will be a good indicator of his attitude.

I am also hesitant to jump on a Bosox bandwagon when they will be relying on a pitcher who is making a league switch, and an old timer who was horrendously bad last year (Schilling).

Alex Gonzalez and Mike Lowell, offensively, were nothing to cheer about last year.

>Our pitching was so bad last year, it can only get better.
>Schilling is looking to come back from his injury [he had a
>couple of bright spots last year, 1Run games], we traded for
>Beckett [Yankee Killer], and brought up Jon Papelbon. As for
>relief corps, we traded for David Riske, signed Julian
>Tavarez, signed Rudy Seanez, re-signed Timlin, and Foulke
>appears to be in the best shape of his life.

Tavarez was a good pickup. Foulke should scare the hell out of you after last season. Timlin faltered in the second half, and I think that will continue.

My picks (reiterating BaseballGeeks Podcast #5):

1) Yanks
2) BlueJays (wildcard)
3) Bosox
4) Tampa
5) Orioles

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Message #2216 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  Reedster
From:  
JCacho  
Subject:  Re: Who Will Win The A.L. East?
Date:  2/22/06, 8:59pm
Fair enough, but you say "I expect a career year from Burnett this year." while you're "hesitant to jump on a Bosox bandwagon when they will be relying on a pitcher who is making a league switch" ?


Burnett: 3.44 ERA, 12-12 record, 198 Ks, 1.26 WHIP

Beckett : 3.37 ERA, 15-8 record, 166Ks, 1.18 WHIP


Beckett is better than Burnett in all the basic stats except Ks. Both are injury prone, so I dont see how one can be expecting more from Burnett than Beckett (?)

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Message #2867 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  JCacho
From:  
Jaydawg  
Subject:  Re: Who Will Win The A.L. East?
Date:  4/1/06, 2:55pm
I agree with Reedster's predictions here. With the possible exceptions of the Mets and Dodgers, Toronto made the most improvements during the offseason. The 3-4-5 combo of Overbay, Glaus, and Vernon Wells should be able to compete with any other team in the league. Their pitching has improved a great deal as well. The Blue Jays look poised to win the Wild Card, but the Red Sox should give them quite a few nail-biters in September.

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Message #4192 of 6634  *NEW*
To:  All
From:  
Jaydawg  
Subject:  Re: Who Will Win The A.L. East?
Date:  10/22/06, 2:51pm (Last Edited: 10/22/06, 2:53pm)
Man, was I off the mark with the Jays and Red Sox. JCacho was correct about Toronto and the injury-prone Burnett. They had a hell of a disappointing and underachieving year and the Red Sox couldn't even compete for the Wild Card with a hot Schilling on the mound. The Yanks were a no-brainer to take the division, but I don't think anybody would've predicted their early exit during the playoffs. Hell, even Dr. Rub thought that they would "probably" go all the way.

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